Like Car Insurance

Best Insurance stock - Aspen Insurance stock outlook 2013 : Aspen Insurance has been witnessing rising earnings estimates on the back of strong fourth-quarter 2012 results. Moreover, this property and casualty insurer delivered positive earnings surprises in all four quarters of 2012 with an average beat of 54.3%.

Additionally, Aspen Insurance and Goldman, Sachs & Co. ( GS - Analyst Report ) entered into an Accelerated Share Repurchase agreement whereby Aspen will pay $150 million to Goldman in exchange of its shares. Further, from Jan 1, 2013 through Feb 26, 2013, Aspen bought back $47 million shares. Aspen is left with $335 million under its $500 million share repurchase authorization.

Following a through review of businesses, management decided to lower its wind and earthquake exposure within the U.S. property insurance account. This would free up more than $200 million of capital that could be deployed to maximize shareholder value.

Aspen Insurance expects to generate operating return on equity of 10% in 2014. It delivered 8.5% in return on equity in 2012.

Aspen Insurance reported its fourth-quarter results on Feb 7. Non-GAAP loss per share came in at 15 cents, better than the Zack Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.21 per share.

Gross written premiums improved 25.6% year over year to $576.2 million in the fourth quarter. A surge of 40.2% in gross written premiums at the Insurance segment fueled the improvement.

Combined ratio improved 1710 basis points year over year to 107.1% in the fourth quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2013 increased 6.8% to $2.97 per share as 3 of 6 estimates were revised higher over the last 60 days. Also for 2014, 3 of 6 estimates moved up, pushing the Zacks Consensus Estimate higher by 7.6% to $3.13 over the same time frame.

Best Insurance Stock  - Insurance stock prices analysis today : Metlife Inc stock prices analysis, Genworth Financial Inc ,  Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE:LNC) , ING Groep N.V. (ADR) (NYSE:ING) : Metlife Inc (NYSE:MET) stock is at $37.23, down-2.06 percent from its previous close of $38.20. Its today�s volume is 9.73 million shares in comparison to its usual trading volume of 8.67 million shares. The stock opened the session at $37.71 and touched its highest price point at $37.80.

The company is on track to expand the portfolio of Americas head William Wheeler with a $2 billion agreement to takeover AFP Provida SA (PROVIDA) from Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA), highlighting the potential he may be the next chief executive officer.

Metlife Inc�s lowest price point for the session stood at $37.22, and its 52 week price range stood at $27.60 - $39.55. The company has total of 1.09billion outstanding shares and its total market capitalization is $40.62billion. Its beta value stands at 1.99 times and earning per share was $2.05.

Previous 5 days graph demonstrated a negative move of -1.12%. MET�s quarterly performance remained green with the percentage of +7.29, while its year to date performance showed that the stock advanced overall 13.02%.

Genworth Financial Inc (NYSE:GNW) stock is at $9.15, down-1.61 percent from its previous close of $9.30. The stock opened the session at $9.23 and touched its highest price point at $9.25. Genworth Financial stock�s lowest price point for the session stood at $9.08.

Stocks graphical chart shows a bullish trend during its last one month�s trading session. It remained positive with 50.99% during previous three months trade.

Its today�s volume is 8.14 million shares in comparison to its usual trading volume of 10.66 million shares. Its beta value stands at 3.15 points. Currently stocks EPS is $0.61 while its price to earning ratio is 15.11.

Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE:LNC) opened the session at $29.15 and remained in $28.73 and $29.25 price range during the session. The stock is 2.10 percent down at $28.88. Volume closed the day at 2.61 million shares, its average volume being 2.58 million shares.

The company has total of 275.02 million outstanding shares and its total market capitalization is $7.94billion. Its beta value stands at 2.66 times and earning per share was $1.44.

LNC was a loser in the 5 days activity and slipped about -0.59%. The one month performance of stock was positive as it scored more than 2.74%.

ING Groep N.V. (ADR) (NYSE:ING) traded in the range of $9.41 and $9.64 in its previous trading session. The stock recorded the volume of 2.92 million shares so far, in comparison its average daily trading volume of 1.96 million shares. The company has total of 3.80 million outstanding shares and its total market capitalization is $35.81billion.

Company�s year to date performance remained declining as it lost almost -0.74%. If we look at last 6 months of trade that is in bullish zone with an increase of 42.08%

The stock opened at $9.64 and its closing price for the day was $9.42, down-5.52 percent from its previous close of $9.97. The beta of the INGstands at 2.77. 52 week range of the stock is $5.51 -$10.47. (source http://otcstockpicks.net/)

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Aflac Dividend Stock forecast : Aflac Incorporated provides supplemental health and life insurance in Japan (80% of earnings) and the U.S. Products are marketed at work sites and help fill gaps in primary coverage.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price

2. 20-Year DCF Price

3. Avg. P/E Price

4. Graham Number

AFL is trading at a discount to 3.) and 4.) above. The stock is trading at a 16.2% discount to its calculated fair value of $61.44. AFL earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout

2. Debt To Total Capital

3. Key Metrics

4. Dividend Growth Rate

5. Years of Div. Growth

6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

AFL earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. AFL earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1973 and has increased its dividend payments for 30 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.

2. Years to > MMA

AFL earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $992. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as AFL has. The stock's current yield of 2.6% exceeds the 2.54% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Memberships and Peers: AFL is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat, a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers� Index and a Dividend Champion. The company's peer group includes: American Independence Corp. (AMIC) with a 0.0% yield, Unum Group (UNM) with a 2.3% yield and CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO) with a 0.8% yield.

Conclusion: AFL earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks AFL as a 5-Star Very Strong stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $51.47 before AFL's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 30 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.6%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 5.3%. This dividend growth rate is lower than the 7.9% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. AFL has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

Operating in the two largest insurance markets in the world (U.S. and Japan), AFL has built a tremendous low-cost distribution system. Focusing on supplemental insurance products, AFL consistently generate excess returns for shareholders. Consistent earnings has allowed the company to increase its dividend and repurchase shares.

Despite a strong business model, the AFL's balance sheet remains stressed due to questions over some of its investments, specifically European bank hybrid bonds and European sovereign debt. The company has taken steps to de-risk its investment portfolio. This move will likely slow earnings growth over the next few years, but should lead to higher long-term value.

AFL is currently trading at a discount versus its historical valuation. The company is trading below my calculated fair value price of $61.44. However, a recent runup in its share price has lowered the stocks yield, so for now I will wait on a more attractive entry point before adding to my position.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information. Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in AFL (1.5% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio).source : http://seekingalpha.com/article/1154141-aflac-incorporated-dividend-stock-analysis?source=google_news

best insurance stock - Allstate insurance Stock outlook 2013-2014, Allstate stock performance 2013 ; Shares of Allstate closed at $42.93 Monday, trading for 9.5 times the consensus 2013 earnings per share estimate of $4.53. The consensus 2014 EPS estimate is $4.88.

The shares returned 50 percent during 2012.Based on a quarterly payout of 22 cents, the shares have a dividend yield of 2.05 percent.

Allstate announced on Nov. 28 estimated that its losses for October, net of reinsurance, totaled $1.1 billion before taxes. The company said that "autos represent approximately 40 percent of the total gross losses, with 78 percent in New York, 19 percent in New Jersey and 3 percent in other states."

For its property-liability unit, Allstate reported underwriting income of $1.316 billion for the first three quarters of 2012. During 2011, the unit had an underwriting loss of $874 million.

The company will announce its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 7, with analysts expecting a loss of 7 cents a share, compared to a profit of $1.46 a share the previous quarter, and earnings per share of $1.48 during the fourth quarter of 2011.

Allstate on Dec. 17 announced that its board of directors had "approved a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion to be funded by issuing a like amount of subordinated debentures," after its previous buyback program was completed.

Following the company's announcement, Credit Suisse analyst Michael Zaremski reiterated his "outperform" rating for Allstate, with a $42 price target, saying he expected the company's board of directors to approve an additional $1 billion worth of stock (equal to 5 percent of shares outstanding at today's stock price [on Dec. 1]) via the issuance of a like amount of hybrid debt." Zaremski estimates that Allstate will earn $4.35 a share in 2013 with earnings per share rising to $4.72 in 2014.

best insurance stock - Aflac Inc AFL stock prediction 2013, Aflac Inc AFL insurance stock performance outlook 2013 : Aflac Inc. (AFL) stock traded down 2.53% on Thursday, hitting $52.70. AFLAC has a 52-week low of $38.13 and a 52-week high of $54.93. The stock�s 50-day moving average is currently $52.81. The company has a market cap of $24.711 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.90.



Aflac Inc. (AFL)  What most consumers don't realize is that 80% of Aflac's business comes from Japan, where it is the number one life insurance company. In the U.S., Aflac is the number one provider of voluntary worksite insurance, and its policies pay cash benefits directly to the insured. One of my favorite things about Aflac as an investment is that the company has one of the best records of dividend increases I have ever come across, with 29 consecutive years of increases.

AFLAC last released its earnings data on Tuesday, October 23rd. The company reported $1.77 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $1.66 by $0.11. The company�s revenue for the quarter was up 14.4% on a year-over-year basis. AFLAC has set its Q4 guidance at $1.46-1.51 EPS. Analysts expect that AFLAC will post $6.61 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Currently yielding $1.40 annually, or 2.68%, it is a fairly safe assumption that the increases will continue going forward. Also worth noting is that Aflac trades at only 8.2 times 2012 earnings, which are expected to grow considerably going forward. Consensus estimates call for earnings of $6.92 and $7.38 in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Conservatively assuming the P/E ratio gravitates toward the historic average of around 9 times earnings, this gives us one and two year price targets of $62.28 and $66.42.

AFLAC Stock rating by analyst
AFLAC (NYSE: AFL) was downgraded by equities researchers at JPMorgan Chase from an �overweight� rating to a �neutral� rating in a report issued on Thursday. They currently have a $54.00 target price on the stock, down from their previous target price of $55.00. The analysts noted that the move was a valuation call.

A number of other analysts have also recently weighed in on AFL. Analysts at Barclays Capital reiterated an �overweight� rating on shares of AFLAC in a research note to investors on Thursday. They now have a $65.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $58.00. Separately, analysts at FBR Capital reiterated a �market perform� rating on shares of AFLAC in a research note to investors on Monday. They now have a $52.00 price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Zacks reiterated a �neutral� rating on shares of AFLAC in a research note to investors on Monday, December 24th. They now have a $57.00 price target on the stock.

Aflac (NYSE:AFL) has been reiterated by TheStreet Ratings as a buy with a ratings score of B+ . The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, notable return on equity, attractive valuation levels and good cash flow from operations. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company shows low profit margins.

    Despite its growing revenue, the company underperformed as compared with the industry average of 21.6%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues rose by 14.3%. Growth in the company's revenue appears to have helped boost the earnings per share.

    AFL's debt-to-equity ratio is very low at 0.28 and is currently below that of the industry average, implying that there has been very successful management of debt levels.

    The return on equity has improved slightly when compared to the same quarter one year prior. This can be construed as a modest strength in the organization. In comparison to the other companies in the Insurance industry and the overall market, AFLAC INC's return on equity significantly exceeds that of the industry average and is above that of the S&P 500.
   
Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiary, American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus, provides supplemental health and life insurance. Aflac has a market cap of $25.36 billion and is part of the financial sector and insurance industry. The company has a P/E ratio of 8.9, below the S&P 500 P/E ratio of 17.7. Shares are up 25% year to date as of the close of trading on Tuesday.

Best Insurance stock - MetLife MET Stock Prediction 2013, MetLife insurance shares 2013: MetLife investors have waited since the autumn of 2011 for the company to buy back shares and raise its dividend, but regulators foiled the company's plans. On a year-end investor call with analysts, MetLife management said the 2013 forecast assumes no share buybacks. Chief Executive Steve Kandarian later added, "I don't have total confidence" the company will be free to buy back shares after 2013, either.

MetLife Inc (MET.N) warned that 2013 earnings might be well below Wall Street expectations and said it did not expect to buy back any shares next year, a blow to investors who have been waiting more than a year for a capital return.

For this year, the insurer expects operating earnings of $5.5 billion to $5.6 billion, or $5.15 to $5.25 per share, compared with analysts' average estimate of $5.25.

In 2013, it expects $5.5 billion to $5.9 billion, or $4.95 to $5.35 per share. Analysts' average forecast is $5.47, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. MetLife's operating earnings forecast excludes discontinued operations and net investment gains and losses.

MetLife (NYSE: MET)�s stock had its �equalweight� rating restated by equities researchers at Barclays Capital in a report issued on Thursday. They currently have a $37.00 target price on the stock.

MetLife traded up 0.36% on Thursday, hitting $35.2777. MetLife has a 52-week low of $27.60 and a 52-week high of $39.55. The stock�s 50-day moving average is currently $32.85. The company has a market cap of $38.490 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.33.

MetLife last released its earnings data on Wednesday, October 31st. The company reported $1.32 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $1.28 by $0.04. The company�s revenue for the quarter was up .0% on a year-over-year basis. On average, analysts predict that MetLife will post $5.22 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Several other analysts have also recently commented on the stock. Analysts at Macquarie reiterated an �outperform� rating on shares of MetLife in a research note to investors on Monday. They now have a $45.00 price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at Credit Suisse reiterated an �outperform� rating on shares of MetLife in a research note to investors on Monday, December 24th.

 Over the next five years, the analysts that follow this company are expecting it to grow earnings at an average annual rate of 8.73%.This year, analysts are forecasting earnings increase of 3.71% over last year. Analysts expect earnings growth next year of 0.35% over this year's forecasted earnings.

Figure MetLife Inc. (MET) Stock 1 year 

 MetLife Inc. (MET) - The largest U.S. life insurer, MetLife also has a substantial financial services business, with a focus on retirement planning and corporate benefit funding. The company also has a rapidly growing international business, currently comprising 31% of revenues.

Currently yielding 2.3%, MetLife has a solid record of raising the dividend; however they have kept the payout constant since the financial crisis. My favorite thing about MET is its extremely attractive valuation, currently trading at only 6.7 times earnings. The failure of the Fed's stress test could be the reason for the depressed valuation, but analysts tend to believe that MET is financially sound and is well positioned to capture additional market share.

 MetLife, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides insurance, annuities, and employee benefit programs in the United States, Japan, Latin America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. The company offers group life insurance products, including variable, universal, term, and whole life products, as well as employee paid supplemental life products; and individual life insurance products comprising variable, universal, term, and whole life products, as well as a range of mutual funds and other securities products. It also provides non-medical health products and services, which include dental insurance, group short- and long-term disability, individual disability income, long-term care, critical illness, and accidental death and dismemberment coverages, as well as employer-sponsored auto and homeowners insurance, and administrative services to employers; and retirement products consisting variable and fixed annuities that are primarily sold to individuals and employees of corporations and other institutions. In addition, the company offers an array of annuity and investment products, including guaranteed interest products and other stable value products, income annuities, and separate account contracts for the investment management of defined benefit and defined contribution plan assets, as well as offers products to fund postretirement benefits; personal lines of property and casualty insurance to employees and individuals, as well as personal excess liability and coverage for recreational vehicles and boat owners; and credit insurance and endowment products. Further, it offers banking products comprising mortgage and deposit products, as well as other financial services. The company sells its products through its sales forces, third-party organizations, independent agents, and property and casualty specialists. MetLife, Inc. was founded in 1863 and is based in New York, New York.

Axa insurance stock prices forecast 2013 : AXA Group (CS.PA) Year over year, AXA Group has seen revenues remain relatively flat (�98.9B to �99.0B), though the company was able to grow net income from �2.7B to �4.3B. A reduction in the percentage of sales devoted to cost of goods sold from 105.29% to 86.06% was a key component in the bottom line growth in the face of flat revenues.

On Dec. 18, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its counterparty  credit and insurer financial strength ratings on the core operating entities  of France-based composite insurer AXA group to 'A+' from 'AA-'. The outlook is  stable.

In our base-case assumptions, we expect the group's underlying earnings to  grow in the mid-single digits over 2013 and 2014, on the back of stable  contributions from its major business segments, continued improvement in the  P/C combined ratio (a measure of underwriting profitability), and steady life

and savings margins.

On August 21st, 2012 AXA announced the launch of its 2012 employee share offering ("SharePlan 2012"), a capital increase reserved to its employees worldwide. Over 21,000 employees in 40 countries, representing over 18% of the eligible employees, subscribed to SharePlan 2012.

AXA Group announced the appointment of V�ronique Weill, Chief Operating Officer and member of the Executive Committee, to the Group's Management Committee as of January 1. V�ronique Weill joined the company in June 2006 after having spent more than 20 years at JP Morgan, notably as Group head of Operations for Investment Banking and global head of IT & Operations for Asset Management and Private Clients. She was appointed Group Chief Operating Officer of AXA in December 2009, and is now in charge of Group Marketing, Distribution, IT, Operational Excellence, Procurement and GIE AXA.

AXA Market share in Asian
French insurer AXA is keen to expand its business in Singapore and Asia. As part of its growth plans, AXA unveiled its new offices that will house more than 600 of its staff in general and life insurance. Located at 8 Shenton Way, the AXA Tower stands 235 metres with 52 storeys. AXA is also focused on building its presence in Asia, where insurance premiums are expected to grow 17 per cent to US$957 billion in 2015. AXA commands a 9.5 per cent market share in general insurance with health, cargo and motor as its main products. So far, Indonesia and Thailand are AXA's key Asian markets for life insurance where it enjoys market share of 16 and 6 to 7 per cent, respectively. 

AXA Group reported annual 2011 earnings of �1.57 per share on 02/18/2012. AXA Group had revenues for the full year 2011 of �86.1B. This was -5.3% below the prior year's results.

AXA Group, through its subsidiaries, provides insurance and asset management services. Its Life & Savings segment offers term life, whole life, universal life, endowment, disability, deferred and immediate annuities, and other investment-based products; and critical illness and permanent health insurance products for individual and commercial clients. The company�s Property & Casualty segment provides motor, household, property, and general liability insurance; health products; and engineering services to support prevention policies in companies.

AXA Group�s International Insurance segment offers coverage to large national and international corporations primarily relating to property damage, third party liability, marine, aviation and transport, construction and financial risk, and directors and officers liability, as well as provides loss-prevention and risk management services. It also offers assistance services, including medical aid for travelers, automobile-related road assistance, home assistance, and health-related services primarily to banking and insurance companies, tour operators, telecommunication operators, and automobile manufacturers, as well as to gas, water, and electricity utilities. In addition, this segment manages a book of reinsurance contracts of variable annuities with guaranteed minimum death and income benefits.

The company�s Asset Management segment provides investment management and related services to individual investors, and private and institutional clients; research portfolio analysis and brokerage-related services for institutional investors; and equity capital markets services for issuers of publicly traded securities. AXA Group�s Banking segment offers a range of retail banking products, such as current and savings accounts, mortgage loans, and mutual funds. The company operates primarily in Europe, North America, and the Asia-Pacific region. AXA Group was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

Prudential Financial PRU stock prediction 2013 ; Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU), the second-largest life insurer in the U.S., said it expected to earn between $7.50 and $7.90 a share next year, an increase over 2012, driven in part by growth in existing units and the completion of previously announced deals. 

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had been predicting operating earnings per share of $7.88 next year on average. Prudential has earned $4.43 per share through the first nine months of 2012 and analysts so far expect $1.75 in the fourth quarter. The earnings guidance was disclosed in a slideshow included in a regulatory filing in advance of Prudential's third-quarter conference call, where executives plan to discuss their outlook for 2013. 

The company, which announced a 10% dividend increase, said it would end the year with "readily deployable capital" of $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion. Share buybacks were one driver of 2013 earnings growth listed by the company in the slides. Prudential also predicted operating return on equity, another measure of profitability, would rise to 12.2% to 12.8% in 2013. 

The company's operating return on equity was 10.2% through the first nine months of this year. The earnings-per-share outlook for next year assumes that interest rates, which have damped returns in investment portfolios across the insurance industry, will stay low. It also assumes the company will complete a previously announced acquisition of a life-insurance business from Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (HIG) in the first quarter and a large pension transaction in the fourth. 

The tentative model also predicted the price would grow in the first half of 2012 to $52. Therefore, we foresaw a negative correction in March-April. The actual price started to fall in the beginning of May and the monthly closing price for May was at the level of $45 per share. The updated model, as obtained with new data between March and October 2012, predicts a healthy growth in the price in 2012Q4. In January 2013, the price may reach the level of $64. On November 20, the closing price was $50.78. There is some potential of a 10% to 15% return at a three month horizon. One may consider PRU as an investment idea at this horizon.

The model has been obtained using our concept of share pricing as a decomposition of a share price into a weighted sum of two consumer price indices. The intuition is clear - there is a set of goods and services which any company produces and this set defines the share price evolution of a given company relative to other companies.

These other companies are also driven by prices for some goods and services. Hence, for a given company one needs two defining sets of goods and services to estimate its relative pricing power - one related and one as an independent reference. Thus, the relevant stock price can be defined by two CPIs which include corresponding goods and services.

Many SA readers have reasonable doubts that some consumer price, which is not directly related to goods and services produced by a given company, may affect its price. We allow the economy to be a more complex system than described by a number of simple linear relations between share prices and goods. The connection between a firm and its products may be better expressed by goods and services which the company does not produce or provide. The demand/supply balance is fragile and may evolve along many nonlinear paths. It would be too simplistic to directly define a company price only by its own products.

Originally, we addressed the PRU model in 2009 and found two CPIs explaining the monthly closing prices of PRU since 2003. They were the consumer price index of food and beverages (F) and the index of transportation services (TS). The defining time lags were as follows: the food index led the share price by 5 months and the TS index led by 4 months:

PRU(t) = -6.09F(t-5) - 3.15TS(t-4) + 59.76(t-1990) + 930.50, September 2009

PRU(t) = -5.45F(t-5) - 3.98TS(t-3) + 59.66(t-1990) + 1055.38, September 2010

PRU(t) = -5.14F(t-5) - 3.80TS(t-4) + 56.20(t-1990) + 1005.63, February 2012

Here we revisit the model. We have borrowed the time series of monthly closing prices of PRU from Yahoo.com and the relevant (seasonally not adjusted) CPI estimates through October 2012 are published by the BLS. The best-fit model for PRU(t) is as follows:

PRU(t) = -5.09F(t-5) - 3.67TS(t-3) + 55.44(t-2000) + 1531.31, October 2012

where PRU(t) is the PRU share price in U.S. dollars, t is calendar time. One can conclude that the model has not been changing since January 2009 and thus provides a good estimate of the price at a three month horizon.

Figure 2 depicts the high and low monthly prices for a share together with the predicted and measured monthly closing prices (adjusted for dividends and splits). The predicted prices are well within the limits of the high/low share price which might be considered as the actual price uncertainty.

The model residual error is shown in Figure 3 with the standard deviation between July 2003 and October 2012 of $6.01 ($5.58 in March 2012).

Source ref:

AIG Insurance stock prediction 2013 : American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is a leading international insurance organization serving customers in more than 130 countries. AIG companies serve commercial, institutional and individual customers through one of the most extensive worldwide property-casualty networks of any insurer. In addition, AIG companies are leading providers of life insurance and retirement services in the United States. AIG Common Stock, par value $2.50 per share (AIG Common Stock), is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, as well as the stock exchanges in Ireland and Tokyo. 

AIG is an insurance conglomerate that spans the globe, but during the great recession like many other giant financial institutions, AIG got itself into a lot of trouble taking on the counter-party risk of mortgage backed securities. During the 4th quarter of 2008, AIG set the world record for reporting the biggest loss. It lost $99.3 billion dollars in a single quarter.